“The most important point for me is that, in a lot of economically sensitive areas, there appeared to be a pickup. Compare with stores saying theyre happy with the last two weeks of sales, and it looks like were on somewhat firmer footing.”
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“What it means is that with the benefit of hindsight, the late 90s never happened,”
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“Traditionally, the stock market does well in the first year of recovery because you have a sharp rise in productivity and moderating wage demands, so unit labor costs plunge and profits grow rapidly. All the data tell you that is happening. Whats weighing on the market is the recognition that the last three years earnings were largely created by clever accountants rather than strong fundamentals.”
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“If spending numbers looked like sentiment numbers, wed be back in recession, ... The good news is that consumers are complaining, but theyre spending.”
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“Youre supposed to see recovery signs and they really are right on cue.”
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“I just dont see any upside surprise in terms of a second half recovery.”
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“First the cash market went up, reflecting the reality of a very tight supply-demand situation. Then the futures went up, making the case this was an enduring change in energy prices.”
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“Now you should expect facts on the ground to change as energy production and conservation come to the fore.”
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“So the stock market could have a negative wealth effect and weigh on capital spending, but a sharp decline in long-term interest rates would be an important counterweight.”
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“Faltering U.S. new home sales, reflecting shrinking housing affordability, call into question the notion of another year above-trend growth for U.S. consumer spending and real gross domestic product.”
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