Quotes by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Things always become obvious after the fact

Reality is far more vicious than Russian roulette. First, it delivers the fatal bullet rather infrequently, like a revolver that would have hundreds, even thousands of chambers instead of six. After a few dozen tries, one forgets about the existence of a bullet, under a numbing false sense of security. Second, unlike a well-defined precise game like Russian roulette, where the risks are visible to anyone capable of multiplying and dividing by six, one does not observe the barrel of reality. One is capable of unwittingly playing Russian roulette - and calling it by some alternative “low risk” game.

Wit seduces by signaling intelligence without nerdiness.

A prophet is not someone with special visions, just someone blind to most of what others see

You cannot do anything with knowledge unless you know where it stops, and the costs of using it.

Missing a train is only painful if you run after it! Likewise, not matching the idea of success others expect from you is only painful if that’s what you are seeking.

The curious mind embraces science; the gifted and sensitive, the arts; the practical, business; the leftover becomes an economist

Read books are far less valuable than unread ones. The library should contain as much of what you do not know as your financial means, mortgage rates, and the currently tight real-estate market alow you to put there.

A prophet is not someone who first had an idea. He is the one to first believe in it and take it to its conclusion.

There is a saying that bad traders divorce their spouse sooner than abandon their positions. Loyalty to ideas is not a good thing for traders, scientists - or anyone.

Meditation is a way to be narcissistic without hurting anyone

Just as no monkey is as good-looking as the ugliest of humans, no academic is worthier than the worst of the creators

If the past, by bringing surprises, did not resemble the past previous to it (what I call the pasts past), then why should our future resemble our current past?

What I learned on my own I still remember

Life is about execution rather than purpose.

In the past, only some of the males, but all of the females, were able to procreate. Equality is more natural for females.

Someone with a low degree of epistemic arrogance is not too visible, like a shy person at a cocktail party. We are not predisposed to respect humble people, those who try to suspend judgement. Now contemplate epistemic humility. Think of someone heavily introspective, tortured by the awareness of his own ignorance. He lacks the courage of the idiot, yet has the rare guts to say I dont know. He does not mind looking like a fool or, worse, an ignoramus. He hesitates, he will not commit, and he agonizes over the consequences of being wrong. He introspects, introspects, and introspects until he reaches physical and nervous exhaustion.This does not necessarily mean he lacks confidence, only that he holds his own knowledge to be suspect. I will call such a person an epistemocrat; the province where the laws are structured with this kind of human fallibility in mind I will can an epistemocracy.

The next time someone pesters you with unneeded advice, gently remind him of the fate of the monk whom Ivan the Terrible put to death for delivering uninvited (and moralizing) advice. It works as a short-term cure.

The problem of knowledge is that there are many more books on birds written by ornithologists than books on birds written by birds and books on ornithologists written by birds

When you beat up someone physically, you get excercise and stress relief; when you assault him verbally on the Internet, you just harm yourself.